Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
03/16/2010 - Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - O.J. Mayo paced a balanced attack with 24 points, as Memphis withstood a spirited effort from a depleted Chicago Bulls squad to post a 104-97 win at FedEx Forum.
Mike Conley registered 19 points and 10 assists, and Zach Randolph 18 points and 12 rebounds for the Grizzlies, who have taken four of their last five games.
Rudy Gay added a dozen points, and Hasheem Thabeet stepped up with 10 points and nine boards.
Ronald Murray led the short-handed Bulls, who were without each of their top four scorers, with 25 points, and Hakim Warrick came up with 22 off the bench. Acie Law had 18 points, Jannero Pargo 12 with eight assists and Brad Miller scored 10 and grabbed 11 rebounds.
A fading and banged-up Bulls team extended a season-long losing skid to eight games -- their longest since dropping eight in a row from December 20, 2005- January 4, 2006.
Defensive stalwart Joakim Noah (plantar fasciitis) has missed each game during the Bulls slide, and he has been joined on the sidelines by forward Luol Deng (calf) and All-Star point guard Derrick Rose (sprained left wrist).
Meanwhile, guard Kirk Hinrich was ejected after two technical fouls against Miami on Friday, resulting in a one-game suspension served Tuesday.
<< James' triple-double helps Cavs down Pistons
Auburn Hills, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mo Williams backed LeBron James' 28th
career triple-double with 20 points, as Cleveland turned it on in the fourth
quarter to post a 113-101 victory over Detroit.
James ended with 29 points, 12 a
<< Red-hot Spurs notch road win over Heat
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manu Ginobili scored 22 points to lead the Spurs
in an 88-76 road win over the Heat.
George Hill added 16 points on 7-of-12 shooting, and Richard Jefferson had 15
points and eight rebounds for San Antonio, w
<< Slater's third-period tally lifts Atlanta over Buffalo
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jim Slater scored with 6:44 to play to give the
Atlanta Thrashers a much-needed 4-3 win over the Buffalo Sabres at Philips
Arena.
It was a desperately needed two points for Atlanta as the team snapped an il
<< Habs stay hot in win over Blueshirts
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sergei Kostitsyn's goal in the third period
gave Montreal the lead for good, as the Canadiens edged the New York Rangers,
3-1, at the Garden.
Glen Metropolit also scored for the streaking Canadiens, who
Wild score twice in third to down Oilers >>
St. Paul, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andrew Ebbett and Martin Havlat each had a
goal and an assist, as the Minnesota Wild defeated the road-weary Edmonton
Oilers, 4-2, at Xcel Energy Center.
Chuck Kobasew and Antti Miettinen also lit t
Arkansas-Pine Bluff routs Winthrop in NCAA opener >>
Dayton, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Allen Smith scored a team-high 14 points and
grabbed six rebounds, leading Arkansas-Pine Bluff to a convincing 61-44 win
over Winthrop in the opening-round contest of the 2010 NCAA Tournament.
The win ea
Wozniacki, Dementieva, Jankovic reach Indian Wells QFs >>
Indian Wells, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Second seed Caroline Wozniacki of Denmark,
fourth-seeded Russian star Elena Dementieva and No. 6 seed Jelena Jankovic of
Serbia were each victorious in fourth-round play Tuesday at the $4.5 million
BNP Par
Stars crush Sharks in Dallas >>
Dallas, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mike Ribeiro and Brenden Morrow each scored a
pair of goals, as the Dallas Stars demolished the Western Conference-leading
San Jose Sharks, 8-2, at American Airlines Center.
Brad Richards had a goal and tw
MySportsbook.com is considered one of the finest online sportsbook according to several surveys performed by independent industry analysts considering such factors as payout accuracy and timeliness, overall quality of website, and bettor satisfaction.
MySportsbook is offering a free printable NFL football office pool sheets. Run your own NFL Football Office Pool. Create your own pool, invite your friends to join. Compete with your with co-workers, friends or family for bragging rights every week. Exchange some hard hits without risk of injury. Trash Talk with your fellow co-workers.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your nfl football pool sheets needs.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting