10/07/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending Breeders' Cup Classic champion Curlin continues his preparations at Santa Anita for a second Classic victory. The reigning Horse of the Year has been stabled at the Los Angeles-area track since his record breaking win in the $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park on September 27.
Last Thursday Curlin, under the care of assistant trainer Scott Blasi, galloped a mile on the Pro-Ride surface of Santa Anita.
"The most important thing is, he looks just like he has every day that we've trained him," Blasi noted Thursday morning. "He jogs off perfect and he's getting over the ground beautiful, so that's the most important thing."
Since the colt has never raced on a synthetic track, his connections need to see him work over Santa Anita's Pro-Ride surface to determine how comfortable he is prior to his entry into the Breeders' Cup Classic.
On Friday morning the two-time Eclipse Award winner galloped 1 1/8 miles at Santa Anita. Saturday Curlin went 1 1/2 miles over the track and Sunday, thoroughbred racing's first $10 million horse, galloped two-miles.
Monday morning was the big day for Curlin. He posted his first official workout over Santa Anita's Pro-Ride surface. The winner of this year's $6 million Dubai World Cup covered a half-mile in 52.80.
"He looked around quite a bit," said trainer Steve Asmussen who was in attendance. "It'll be interesting the next time he gets on the track. We just wanted to put his mind at ease and let him do all the acclimating. I don't think there was any decision to be made today. We're going to show Curlin the patience he deserves and we're going to do what we think is right."
The anticipated meeting in the Classic between Curlin and leading three-year- old Big Brown is the number one topic in racing circles. Big Brown remains at his home base of Aqueduct as he prepares for his start in the 1 1/4 mile Classic.
Big Brown, owned by IEAH Stables and trained by Rick Dutrow, Jr., has 40- points to lead all Classic division probables. Curlin gained automatic entry into the race with his win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
<< Vikings win wild one over Saints on Longwell's field goal
New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Longwell made all three of his field
goal attempts, including the game-winning 30-yard boot with 13 seconds left as
the Minnesota Vikings came away with a 30-27 decision against the New Orleans
Saints
<< Lowrie sends Angels packing, Boston back to ALCS
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Boston introduced a new late-game hero, as
Jed Lowrie's seeing-eye single to right scored Jason Bay with the winning run
in the ninth frame, as the Red Sox advanced to the American League
Champio
<< Padres' Bard, Estes elect for free agency
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - San Diego Padres catcher Josh Bard and
pitcher Shawn Estes both cleared waivers and elected for free agency, the team
announced Monday.
Bard, 30, hit just .202 with 16 RBI in 57 games of an injury
<< Rays roll over White Sox, punch ticket to ALCS
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - B.J. Upton hit two solo homers, and the Tampa
Bay Rays defeated the Chicago White Sox, 6-2, to clinch their first berth in
an American League Championship Series in franchise history.
Andy Sonnanstine (1-0
AC Milan learns opponents for UEFA Cup group stage >>
Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seven-time European champion AC Milan was drawn
into Group E of the UEFA Cup on Tuesday, highlighting what is arguably the
tournament's "Group of Death."
AC Milan last won the Champions League in 2006-
A different kind of Liverpool >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Their team is unbeaten through seven games
and sits tied atop the Premiership, but don't blame Liverpool supporters if
they are not doing back flips over the team's success, because they have seen
this
Maurer returns to Eskimos >>
Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Edmonton Eskimos announced the signing
of fullback Mike Maurer on Tuesday. The 32-year-old Maurer had retired from
football on May 13, 2008.
A veteran of 11 CFL seasons, Maurer had spent the last
Pair of Tiger-Cats among CFL weekly award winners >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hamilton Tiger-Cats quarterback Quinton
Porter and linebacker Cameron Siskowic highlighted the list for the top
players in the CFL for Week 15.
Porter was awarded offensive honors after a stel
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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